|
The book proposes an approach to forecasting based upon trended changes in the rate of change of various economic factors. The author argues that most attempts to provide an explanation for economic events tend to put the cart before the horse, and do a poor job of providing any ability to forecast future economic activity. Using technical charting methods, he shows attempts to show that, for example, looking at unemployment rates as a predictor of economic downturns is really not rational. Instead, we should be paying attention to changes in real earnings, which show a strong, positive correlation, on a forward looking basis, with the movement of the general economy, as measured by changes in GDP.Most readers, find the book interesting, but very few are likely to take any action, since the tools proposed by the author require considerable technical expertise, along with loads of common sense and an intuitive sense for what kinds of factor might be the leading indicator [the "cause," in a sense, in the cause and effect relationship the forecaster is trying to establish] needed to do a useful forecast.
under Larry Williams, Trader. This is the ultimate book for investors to read.Also a must-read are the books by Larry Williams.
The problem with reading books about stock market strategy is that you don't know after reading them if they really work. I have been studying the stock market for 20 years and Ahead of the Curve makes my Top 5 Best Books Ever on how to profit in the stock market.
For those who don't want to own stocks during the next recession and lose 50% of their portfolio's value, this is a must read. Joseph Ellis shows through charts and examples the forecasting power of the economic indicators he discusses so that the reader can see for himself or herself that what the author discusses really works.
The fact that he was a top-rated analyst on Wall Street for many years shows his credibility. See his accomplishments on [.].
The other books on my top 5 list:The Stock Traders Almanac, HirschLong-term Secrets to Short-Term Trading, Larry WilliamsThe Secret to Selecting Stocks for Immediate and Substantial Gains, Larry WilliamsThe Right Stock at the Right Time, Larry WilliamsGregg Killpack, Trader & Investing/Trading Trainer[.].
I wish I had been introduced to these remarkable techniques 10 years ago. Great book, I love it and plan to read it a second time. Theory is backed by evidence and it all makes sense 100%. I can't say enough good things about this book. WELL WORTH THE INVESTMENT.
Very will written book on consumer retail economics. I would recommend it if you are looking to forecast consumer behavior, as a PM or retail business owner
I would like to remind him that the author never claimed that's what he was trying to do with his book. He has a great way of identifying possible issues and following his gut feeling like any smart business person does. He gets straight to the point and is VERY logic about getting there.I really appreciated this book, and I recommend it to teachers eager to challenge their grad students. I think we could really use such styles in academia, I have a business background, and I am sure that is why his book appealed to me. I am a strong advocate of reviewing what did not work, especially if results are used to design policies that will affect citizens. I started reading it and did not put it down.
Even though I was only interested in his analysis of consumer earnings as predictable value, it was such an easy read I did not put it down. I found myself on page 182, because I got hungry and I had to eat. To the reviewer who so proudly holds a PhD from MIT and who criticized the author for failing to provide the reader with a model that should unlock all forecasting mysteries. Makes for an exciting class and stretches students' mind out of the common mainstream approach. Yes he mentioned a couple of theories, mostly objectively criticizing their shortcoming. You can see it in his writing style. This is how you create innovative environments and graduate creative people and not by getting angry and shooting down new ideas.M.Chida, Ph.D.
After all, he is not an economist, how dare he tell us what we did was wrong or could be changed. Unless you were reading a different book.But for those interested in a fresh, exciting way to revisit past possible failures in forecasting, especially which variables used versus which ones we ought to look at, then this is a great business read on the plane or the train or even on your couch like I did. They could present them with an exciting case study where teams need to forecast say sales or demand for a line of goods. I can see how some economists might take Ellis' book the wrong way. He is not attacking any theory, he is simply raising some questions. See which team actually comes up with the best fitted results while one team specifically is asked to implement Ellis' approach. (ooops.I guess every body has one these days).:o)
|
